Category: Analysis

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Natasha Joseph, Commissioning Editor

Footprints on a sandy surface don’t usually last long: they’re washed away by water, wiped out by wind or covered over by new tracks. At certain sites in southern Africa, though, some traces of animals have lasted for many thousands or even millions of years – fleeting moments preserved in sand that turned to rock.

They tell scientists about the creatures that lived in ancient times, how they behaved and what their environment was like. Studying fossil footprints also adds to what the body fossil record reveals.

In these articles from our archive, scientists share some of their exciting fossil footprint finds.

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Zebra crossing – with a difference

Charles Helm studies the fossilised tracks, trails, burrows and excavations made by animals. He’s discovered how, tens of thousands of years ago, a huge horse species roamed along South Africa’s Cape south coast.

These findings also revealed that these Giant Cape Zebras must have been a fairly regular sight on the landscape. An insight that body fossil records don’t provide.

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Read more: New discovery: fossilised giant zebra tracks found in South Africa

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Oldest human footprints

Armed with specialist skills and world-class technology, Charles Helm also teamed up with geographer Andrew Carr to investigate tracks along South Africa’s coast. That’s how they identified something truly remarkable: a footprint left by one of our human ancestors 153,000 years ago. So far, it’s the oldest footprint in the world attributed to our species, Homo sapiens .

They explained how the finding also confirms that the Cape south coast was an area in which early modern humans survived, evolved and thrived, before spreading out of Africa to other continents.

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Read more: World’s oldest _Homo sapiens_ footprint identified on South Africa’s Cape south coast

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Dinosaur behaviour insights

Today, dinosaur fossils can be found in many parts of the world. South Africa and Lesotho’s main Karoo Basin, for example, contains many dinosaur fossils and dinosaur markings, like footprints.

Miengah Abrahams explains that fossil footprints are a treasure chest of information. They can reveal what organism made the tracks, offer clues to their behaviour and even provide evidence about the conditions in which they lived. She outlines what’s been learnt from dinosaur tracks in the Karoo Basin.

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Read more: Footprints take science a step closer to understanding southern Africa’s dinosaurs

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An unexpected discovery

In this article, Miengah Abrahams tells the story of how she unexpectedly came across some new dinosaur footprints in Lesotho. For a geologist studying dinosaur tracksites this wasn’t a massive surprise, but it was the first time a dinosaur from the ornithischian group – a four-footed, plant-eating, “bird-hipped” community – had been documented in the Roma Valley, an area rich in fossil footprints.

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Read more: Dinosaur tracksite in Lesotho: how a wrong turn led to an exciting find

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– Fossil footprint discoveries and what they tell us
– https://theconversation.com/fossil-footprint-discoveries-and-what-they-tell-us-211156

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Oluwaseyi Dolapo Somefun, Postdoctoral fellow, University of Ibadan

In South Africa, it is legal to have an abortion upon request until the 13th week of pregnancy. The procedure is performed by trained certified midwives or registered nurses at specific primary care clinics. However, social stigma exists around the procedure, and there is a shortage of services in rural areas where about 32% of the population live.

Urban areas near major cities have better access to abortion services, with women in rural areas travelling longer hours to access abortion care.

Nonetheless, accessing these services can still be challenging. This is because there is a shortage of trained and willing abortion providers. And delays in seeking care are common.

Many health problems and deaths related to unsafe abortions can be prevented by providing comprehensive safe abortion care. The introduction of medical abortion, which involves taking specific pills, has greatly improved access to early abortions. In fact, most abortions in wealthier countries are now done using these pills alone. Taking the pills at home is just as safe and effective as having the procedure done at a clinic, especially up to the 10th week of pregnancy.

Our recent study examined the acceptability of implementing telemedicine (remote medical care using technology) for early medical abortion in South Africa. The goal of our study was to understand how people in South Africa felt about using telemedicine and whether it could be a viable option for expanding access to safe and legal abortion services.

Our findings suggest that telemedicine has the potential to improve access to safe and legal abortion services, particularly in areas where clinics may be far away or difficult to reach. Telemedicine can offer a practical alternative that respects individuals’ autonomy, privacy, and reproductive rights.

Covid 19 prompted a leap in virtual healthcare

Telemedicine involves using technology like phones or computers to connect patients with healthcare providers who are not physically present. In the case of early medical abortion, it allows individuals to consult with healthcare professionals, receive guidance, and obtain necessary medications without having to visit a clinic in person.

Telemedicine models may include testing at local clinics and different methods of delivering the medication, such as pick-up points, mail or courier delivery, or prescriptions for local pharmacies. These models can be integrated into existing healthcare facilities or operate outside of the formal health sector in countries where abortion is illegal.

In 1998, South Africa’s Ministry of Health recognised the benefits of integrating telemedicine into their healthcare systems and took action by forming a National Telemedicine Task Team to oversee its introduction in the country’s healthcare services. Despite being a slow process with obstacles, such as technical challenges, the COVID-19 pandemic triggered significant transformations in health systems worldwide, including South Africa, with the widespread adoption of smart digital technologies supporting virtual healthcare.

We conducted interviews and surveys with people who had experienced early medical abortion using telemedicine in South Africa. The study participants were diverse in terms of age, education, and background.

“People tend to judge other people when it comes to abortion”

Overall, our findings showed that telemedicine for early medical abortion was highly satisfactory to participants. Many appreciated the convenience, privacy, and reduced travel costs. The majority of participants felt comfortable using technology to communicate with healthcare providers, and they reported high levels of satisfaction with the telemedicine service.

On privacy, one of the participants said: “People tend to judge other people when it comes to abortion. So, it was easy for the individual, which is me, to communicate with the doctor without anyone knowing what is happening around me,”

Some others believed telemedicine protected them from the judgement they might face at clinics: “For me, it’s better to talk to someone I don’t know because I can express myself more freely. When you talk face-to-face with someone you know, you might feel awkward or judged.”

Importantly, we also found that telemedicine did not compromise quality of care. Participants felt that the telemedicine provided them with the necessary information, support, and medical guidance. They reported feeling well-informed, cared for, and confident in their decision-making throughout the process.

Looking ahead

Some of the potential barriers are the digital divide in South Africa. The availability of telemedicine services relies on access to technology and reliable internet connectivity. In some areas, especially rural and underserved communities, limited access to technology could hinder its widespread adoption. Another barrier could be effective communication. If the provider and patient do not share a common language, it can lead to misunderstandings, misdiagnoses, or inadequate medical advice.

Also, telemedicine platforms and resources might predominantly be available in major languages such as English, which can limit access for individuals who are more comfortable speaking other official languages like Zulu, Xhosa, or Afrikaans. While the findings are promising, further research and consideration are needed to ensure the safe and effective implementation of telemedicine for early medical abortion in South Africa.

– Telemedicine can help women get early abortions safely: South African study
– https://theconversation.com/telemedicine-can-help-women-get-early-abortions-safely-south-african-study-209624

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Ruth Appeltant, Assistant research professor, University of Antwerp

There are several parallel projects running across the world to save the northern white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum simum), one of Africa’s captivating and iconic wildlife species. With the death of last male in 2018 and with only two females alive, the species is functionally extinct.

The most famous of these projects is an international research consortium called BioRescue. It was founded in 2019 by a team of scientists and conservationists under the leadership of the Leibniz Institute for Zoo & Wildlife Research in Berlin, Germany.

In one of its research lines, the BioRescue team collects mature eggs – scientifically called oocytes – from one of the only two northern white females. They reside in Kenya’s Ol Pejeta Conservancy, a privately run wildlife sanctuary. These eggs will be fertilised with frozen sperm that were collected from several northern white male rhinos before their death.

The two remaining females, Najin and Fatu, are not capable of delivering offspring anymore. Najin’s back legs are too weak to carry a pregnancy and Fatu has problems with her uterus. Therefore, the resulting embryos from the fertilised eggs will be transferred into surrogate mothers.

The most suitable surrogate mother would be a southern white rhino as it is the closest related species. But, placing a northern white rhino embryo in a southern white female rhino isn’t an easy task. However, there was promising news in May 2023. Next to the addition of five more northern white embryos – which brings the total to 29 – two wild southern white rhinos were identified as suitable surrogates, as they can still get pregnant and are able to carry the pregnancy through.

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Read more: The case for introducing rhinos to Australia

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The goal of producing a new northern white rhino calf now seems more realistic than ever before.

Sometimes people question the funding and effort spent on one species, but the science behind the rhinoceros story is much bigger. Any species going extinct has huge consequences on the ecosystem, and people’s survival depends on resources provided by this same ecosystem. As a recognisable, impressive and majestic animal, rhinos certainly have a role as a flagship of conservation efforts.

Further, joint efforts on one species can provide scientific knowledge that allows for a multi-species conservation approach. These techniques would not only save the northern white rhinoceros, but also other rhino species, related species with a common ancestor, and all other creatures in need.

Different approaches

Despite the great scientific strides made in efforts to save the northern white rhino, the success rate of embryo transplantation followed by pregnancy to term is extremely low. Parallel initiatives focusing on different conservation approaches are indispensable to ensure the future of this species.

While BioRescue is collecting matured eggs after hormonal stimulation, the Rhino Fertility Project at the University of Oxford in the UK is focusing on growing follicles, which are structures found in the ovary containing an immature egg surrounded by a few layers of supporting cells. These supporting cells provide signals and components essential for the development of the eggs. The idea is to make use of the much greater potential of the ovary by collecting the very small follicles and growing them all in a petridish in the lab.

This would bypass atresia, which is the degradation of follicles that occurs during a natural hormonal cycle. As member of this project, one of us, Ruth Appeltant, was hopeful that this method had the potential to quickly provide a vast number of in vitro-grown oocytes, or mature eggs.

Unfortunately, it became clear that the ovarian tissue of older rhinoceroses contained extremely few to no oocytes. These eggs were needed as the starting material for the project. Without eggs, there is nothing to grow. Ongoing efforts are now looking to establish ways to localise and process the few remaining follicles in old ovarian tissue.

This bottleneck led us to the area of stem cell technologies. At the Gamete Research Centre of the University of Antwerp in Belgium, our group is aiming to produce eggs outside the body from stem cells. These could be used to conserve endangered species like the rhinoceros.

The BioRescue project and a research group at the San Diego Zoo in the US are also aiming to produce artificial eggs from body cells present in tissues.

The common thread is turning cells into induced pluripotent stem cells, which are immature cells generated from mature cells, and that can in turn differentiate into eggs. In fact, this process can transform a skin cell into an egg. The procedure has so far been completed successfully in mice and could already provide a kind of precursor to oocytes in the northern white rhino.

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Read more: Even if you were the last rhino on Earth… why populations can’t be saved by a single breeding pair

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The collection of oocytes is a really tricky process due to the technical difficulties in reaching the site of the ovaries in living animals. Advanced artificial reproductive techniques using body cells, such as skin cells, introduce a spectrum of new possibilities. Most biological samples stored to date consist of small skin samples, but not of oocytes.

A downside to this approach is the fact that scientists first need to succeed in producing stem cells in the species of interest.

At the University of Antwerp’s Gamete Research Centre, we’re not only interested in developing stem cell technologies based on induced pluripotent stem cells, but are currently establishing the in vitro gametogenesis – or “in vitro oocyte-creation” technique – based on stem cells present in the ovary. Due to a scarcity of tissues from endangered species, we are using the pig as a large animal model. This will give us more in-depth knowledge on how to approach egg creation from stem cells already present in the animal, termed endogenous stem cells.

What next?

When we do not have eggs, let’s create them. When we have stem cells, let’s use them. Researchers now know that samples of the northern white rhino individuals currently stored in biobanks have enough genetic variability to establish a viable and sustainable population.

A decade ago, we would have never imagined eggs could be produced from other cells. This is becoming a reality that gives us hope, motivation and energy to save the northern white rhino.

– How to grow rhinos in a lab: the science that could save an endangered species
– https://theconversation.com/how-to-grow-rhinos-in-a-lab-the-science-that-could-save-an-endangered-species-210728

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Kwame Adjei-Mantey, Economist and Lecturer, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, Ghana; Research Fellow, Future Africa Institute, University of Pretoria, University of Pretoria

Health financing is a challenge any country has to deal with to provide good healthcare services. It’s especially important for developing countries such as Ghana, where ability to pay is a hindrance to accessing all the healthcare services that people might need.

The “cash and carry” system, where sick people have to pay out of pocket to obtain care, has obvious adverse implications. People who can’t pay won’t be attended to. This could lead to irreversible consequences – even death.

Health insurance has come up as a means to provide subscribers with at least basic healthcare even if they are unable to pay.

Ghana’s public health insurance programme, the National Health Insurance Scheme, was introduced in 2004. In principle it is mandatory, but in practice it is voluntary.

The active enrolment rate of the public health insurance scheme – the proportion of the population covered – rose to its highest in 2015, when it was 41%. At the end of 2018 it stood at 36%.

(The National Health Insurance Scheme estimated the enrolment rate at end of year 2021 at approximately 54%.)

Clearly, many people are not covered under the National Health Insurance Scheme. The low uptake is an impediment to achieving universal health coverage. But the question is why a social protection programme of this nature has relatively low coverage rates.

The scheme is designed to offer poor households exemptions from annual premium payments. Therefore, the ability to pay insurance premiums shouldn’t be a contributing factor to the low coverage rates.

Private health insurance programmes are not widespread in Ghana either. The Ghana Living Standards Survey 7 conducted by the Ghana Statistical Services in 2017 revealed that only 0.36% of the nearly 60,000 respondents had ever enrolled in a private health insurance programme.

One motivation for subscribing to the National Health Insurance Scheme would be if non-subscribers made higher out-of-pocket payments for healthcare than subscribers. If scheme members paid little or nothing and non-members paid more, then non-members might be motivated to enrol on the scheme.

But this is not often the case. The 2017 survey revealed that health insurance paid out only 16.7% of the medical expenses of the ill or injured across the country.

Contrary to expectation, our research found that Ghana’s national health insurance did not reduce out-of-pocket payments for those who had subscribed. Thus, the scheme may not be achieving its objective of eliminating the cash and carry system.

Why enrolment doesn’t pay

The National Health Insurance Scheme in Ghana has historically been bedevilled by several challenges in practice. Previous research has reported that it is not uncommon for health facilities to charge both formal and informal fees even to insured clients.

Health facilities prefer to attend to patients who pay for treatment in cash rather than those who rely on their national health insurance policy to pay. That’s because they must complete tedious paperwork and wait for a long time before the scheme reimburses them.

This forces patients wanting more timely and better quality of care to make these payments – overt or otherwise – sometimes completely forgoing the use of their national health insurance policies.

The medicines which the scheme covers run out quickly or are unavailable. So patients, insured or not, end up having to buy medicines themselves either from the health facility they visit or from private retail pharmacies.

Some positive news

There were some positive findings from our research, however. We found that very poor households were more likely to enrol in health insurance than other households. This is perhaps because they are exempt from paying insurance premiums.

This suggests that the national scheme is achieving one of its objectives: increasing access to healthcare for the poor.

Although the scheme does not lower health expenditures for members, it might enable them to receive a greater “quantity” of healthcare, since at least some of their health expenses are likely to be covered by insurance.

What should be done?

If provider facilities did not discriminate against patients on the basis of who was willing to make a cash payment, and enrolled members did not have to buy the medicines they needed, people would be confident in using their insurance policies and might spend less out of pocket.

That might rake in more scheme members, which would increase the financial base of the scheme to keep it running effectively.

– Ghana’s national health insurance users often end up paying as much as those who don’t belong. So why join?
– https://theconversation.com/ghanas-national-health-insurance-users-often-end-up-paying-as-much-as-those-who-dont-belong-so-why-join-210145

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Sebastian Elischer, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Florida

Slightly more than two years after Niger’s first peaceful handover of power from one civilian president to another, the military seized power in July 2023. The coup – the fourth in Nigerien history – follows on the heels of recent military interventions in Africa. Mali (August 2020 and May 2021), Chad (April 2021), Guinea (September 2021), Sudan (October 2021) and Burkina Faso (January and September 2022).

Since the end of the Cold War in 1991, the number of military coups has declined sharply. However, francophone west Africa now accounts for approximately two-thirds of all military coups that have occurred since then.

As a political scientist analysing African politics, I have studied military coups and their outcomes for the last decade and a half. In a recent article, Justin Hoyle, a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Florida, and I demonstrate that since 1989, military coups across the world have resulted in two outcomes.

First is the withdrawal of the junta from executive power. This means the junta doesn’t participate or interfere in post-coup elections. While it is necessary for the transition to democracy, it isn’t sufficient in itself. This scenario played out in the Nigerien coup of 2010 and the Thailand coup of 2006.

Second is electoral rigging by the junta in favour of its own candidate. This scenario establishes a regime in which coup leaders entrench themselves in executive power.

Examining how military coups unfold is crucial to understanding a country’s path back to democracy. It also provides insights into the effect of coups on the quality of democracy.

The research

We studied five countries and 12 post-coup transitions: Egypt (coups in 2011 and 2013), Mauritania (coups in 2005 and 2008), Niger (1996, 1999 and 2010), Fiji (2000 and 2006) and Thailand (1991, 2006 and 2014).

Overall, we examined slightly more than a third of all military coups between 1989 and 2017.

Out of a total of 32 post-coup environments, we found that in half of all cases, juntas withdrew from executive power in the coup’s aftermath.

However, even with the military’s withdrawal from power, the transition period to civilian rule was highly volatile. Particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, counter-coup attempts by a rival faction within the armed forces intending to remain in power occurred rather frequently. This was the case most recently in Burkina Faso in 2015.

Although many coups result in the withdrawal of juntas from executive power, many of the cases from our study were near-misses – the country could’ve ended up under military authoritarian rule.

We examined four key variables and their influence on coup outcomes. These are:

• the internal coherence of the armed forces

• the ability of civil society organisations and political parties to mobilise against the junta

• the deployment of donor leverage

• trade dependency on regional and western partners.

Of these, we argue that the two that matter the most are: the internal cohesion of the military and the vibrancy of civil society groups.

The findings

In our analysis, we found that the single most important variable that accounts for different coup outcomes is the internal coherence of the military.

When there’s internal coherence, militaries generally feel inclined to withdraw from executive power. This is because holding on to power challenges their internal cohesion.

Internal cohesion is based on the factors that triggered the coup. If a coup occurs in response to threats to the country’s territorial integrity, to the preservation of public order, or to the military’s material or reputational benefits, the junta will have the backing of the military at large. This is because the benefits of seeking power outweigh the risks of not being in power.

If a coup occurs for reasons outside these, the junta either won’t seek power or will face resistance from within the military and withdraw. We found this confirmed in all the coups that we analysed.

Another relevant yet less significant variable is the positioning of civil society toward the junta.

Where civil society groups manage to rally the population to demand a return to democratic civilian rule, juntas depart from power. The most prominent example of this was in Egypt after the 2011 coup.

Interestingly, we didn’t find that aid dependency or membership in an international organisation with anti-coup rules exerted any discernible influence on juntas. This means that domestic variables – and in particular the drivers of the coup – influence political aftermaths.

What it all means

For the current transitions in parts of Africa, these findings are troubling.

In Sudan, Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad, militaries overthrew their governments because of threats to their countries’ territorial integrity or to the military’s material benefits. The juntas in these countries can rely on the backing of the military at large. This decreases the likelihood of a return to civilian rule.

The implications of our findings for Niger and Guinea are less straightforward, however. Here, coups were staged by a sub-section of the military, even though such a move wasn’t in line with the interests of the armed forces at large. Our research findings suggest a more volatile dynamic for these two post-coup states.

At this stage, no one can predict how the motives of Niger’s presidential guard will shape future action. Much will depend on coup leader Abdourahmane Tchiani’s ability to convince the military that a coup was the right thing to do politically.

Generally, military coups bode ill for democratic processes. In instances where juntas withdraw from power, democracies don’t emerge. When juntas rig post-coup elections, they become entrenched in power in the medium to long-term. This has devastating consequences for the political and civil rights of their populations.

– Military coups in Africa: here’s what determines a return to civilian rule
– https://theconversation.com/military-coups-in-africa-heres-what-determines-a-return-to-civilian-rule-211353

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Chesne Albertus, Senior Lecturer in Criminal Justice and Procedure, University of the Western Cape

The Constitutional Court order relating to a case involving former President Jacob Zuma has illuminated some of the flaws in the law governing medical parole in South Africa. This is despite amendments in 2012 to ensure equality before the law, uphold offenders’ rights to dignity and healthcare when they suffer from serious physical health problems.

Zuma’s case has cast doubts upon the efficacy of the law in achieving these objectives. In short, his parole tested the buoyancy of the law in facilitating the medical release of offenders without political or other interference. He eventually returned to jail on the morning of 11 August, but was immediately released on remission of sentence.

The Constitutional Court rejected the Department of Correctional Services’ application for leave to appeal against the 2022 judgment of the Supreme Court of Appeal (SCA). The SCA had found that Zuma was unlawfully granted medical parole against the advice of the Medical Parole Advisory Board.

Zuma (81) was sentenced to 15 months’ imprisonment for contempt of court after he failed to comply with the Constitutional Court’s order requiring him to appear before the State Capture Commission, which probed mass corruption on his watch. Less than two months after his admission to prison, he was released on medical parole.

The NGOs, Helen Suzman Foundation, AfriForum, and the opposition Democratic Alliance brought separate urgent applications to the High Court to have the parole decision declared unlawful. The foundation also wanted Zuma to serve the full term of his sentence in prison, and that his time on medical parole not be counted as time served. For convenience, all three applications were heard together.

The High Court in Pretoria ruled in 2021 that Zuma was indeed granted medical parole unlawfully, as the Medical Parole Advisory Board did not recommend it in his case because he was not terminally ill as required by the law. He was therefore to return to prison. And the time he was out of prison on medical parole should not have been counted as time served. The correctional services department appealed against the High Court’s order to the Supreme Court of Appeal, which dismissed the appeal.

It, however, also ruled that the question of whether or not the time Zuma spent on unlawful medical parole should count towards his time served must be determined by the correctional services department. The department applied to the Constitutional Court for leave to appeal against the supreme court’s judgement. The apex court rejected this application. The judgement of the appeal court must therefore be enforced and Zuma would have to return to prison.

Medical parole in South Africa is governed by Section 79 of the Correctional Services Act, together with Regulation 29A of the Correctional Services Regulations.

Zuma’s release on medical grounds in September 2021 highlighted at least three potentially fatal flaws in these laws. The first and second flaws relate to the role of the Medical Parole Advisory Board and the Commissioner of Correctional Services, respectively. The third defect concerns the question of what ought to be done about the time an offender spent outside prison if he was unlawfully granted medical parole.

As a law academic with a research interest in correctional issues, I have tracked developments in this area of the law. I believe that section 79 of the Correctional Services Act is open to political manipulation. In the main, the powers and functions of the Medical Parole Advisory Board require elaboration. Additionally, the principle that medical parole can only be considered by the commissioner if the board has confirmed the illness or incapacity of the offender, and if the correctional facility cannot provide the appropriate care, must be expressly included in the law.

The process and gaps in law

A medical parole application must be accompanied by a medical report which recommends placement on medical parole. This report must be submitted to the Medical Parole Advisory Board. The board comprises ten medical practitioners, who must provide an independent medical report to the commissioner.

In this regard their role is clear. They must determine if an

offender is suffering from a terminal disease or condition or if such offender is rendered physically incapacitated as a result of injury, disease or illness so as to severely limit daily activity or inmate self-care.

If the board finds that an offender is not terminally ill or incapacitated, as was the case with Zuma, that ought to be the end of the matter as the main requirement for medical parole does not exist. It is the absence of a statement to this effect in section 79, which may leads to exploitation.

Where the Medical Parole Advisory Board finds that an offender is terminally ill or incapacitated, this does not mean that medical parole must automatically be granted. The correctional regulations require the board to make a recommendation, on the “appropriateness to grant medical parole in accordance with section 79” and Regulation 29A (7) of the correctional services department.

It’s not clear what “appropriateness” means. And it must be remembered that offenders ought not to be released due to ill health only. If an offender can be cared for in a dignified manner in prison, he should not be released. However, section 79 does not make this clear.

Logically, the board is in a position to decide the medical aspects of an application and to guide the commissioner on the care and conditions which are consistent with optimising the quality of life of offenders. The commissioner should then consider whether the prison facility has the means to follow such guidance in caring for an offender.

Unfortunately, the law does not require the board to offer such guidance. Nor does it require the commissioner to determine if the means to care for an offender exist in the prison. These gaps in the law are exacerbated by the omission to specify whether the commissioner has the power to ignore the recommendation of the board, as in Zuma’s application.

Furthermore, section 79 tasks the commissioner with determining the risk of re-offending and if appropriate care is available in the community to which the offender will be released. If afforded medical guidance regarding the necessities to care for the offender, the determination of the availability of appropriate care may not be too onerous.

The same can, however, not be said about determining the risk of re-offending. Section 79 provides a list of factors in assessing such risk. These factors, among other things, include the offence(s), sentencing remarks of the court and the criminal past of an offender. While they may all seem relevant in assessing future criminality, there is no indication as to how they should be weighed up. This is a task which should involve clinical evaluations by forensic psychiatrists, but the legislation does not require this.

Unfortunate omission

The weaknesses in section 79 may explain the low number of successful medical parole applications in recent years. For example, if an offender is lawfully released on medical parole, but their health improves or even if they are cured, they cannot be forced to return to prison.

Contrarily, if an offender was unlawfully released on medical parole, they must return to prison to serve their time, as became clear in Zuma’s case. However, the question of whether the time spent outside prison on unlawful medical parole should be regarded as time served, still looms.

It is unfortunate that the Supreme Court of Appeal referred this question back to the Department of Correctional Services – the very department that flagrantly violated the law. In this regard the High Court’s finding that it has the power to enforce the sentence term should have been confirmed by the SCA to ensure equality before the law.

– Zuma prison case casts doubt on South Africa’s medical parole law
– https://theconversation.com/zuma-prison-case-casts-doubt-on-south-africas-medical-parole-law-211359

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Neil D’Cruze, Global Head of Wildlife Research, World Animal Protection, and Visiting Researcher, Wildlife Conservation Research Unit (WildCRU), University of Oxford

In South Africa an estimated 8,000 lions are bred and kept in captivity for commercial purposes in more than 350 facilities. This is far more than the country’s wild population, estimated at 3,500 individuals.

These big cats are exploited in a variety of different ways including interactive cub “petting” tourism, “canned” trophy hunting (where the lions are hunted in small enclosures with no chance of escape), live exports, and the supply of body parts for use in traditional medicine.

Despite ongoing controversy surrounding this industry – in particular related to reports of animal cruelty and risks to public health – the commercial captive breeding and canned hunting of lions in South Africa is still legal.

By contrast, the export of lion bones, claws, skulls, and teeth originating from lion farms is currently illegal. This follows a high court declaration in 2019 in which the lion bone export quota was declared unconstitutional. Subsequently, no official CITES export quotas for lion skeletons have been set.

We are wildlife researchers who have been focused on various aspects of South Africa’s commercial captive lion industry including its potential impacts, how it is being regulated, and what may be influencing consumer demand.

We also work with World Animal Protection, an animal protection organisation, that has released a new report on the industry, which we contributed to. The report adds credence to pre-existing concerns about how some of these types of facilities operate.

Specifically, that some are using legal activities – like captive breeding and canned hunting – to fuel (and potentially cover) their involvement in the illegal international big cat bone trade. Lion bones are sought after for use in traditional medicine.

This finding adds more weight to various reports about the illegal trade in lion bones over the years.

A nexus of legal and illegal trade

Many of South Africa’s captive lion facilities are open to the public who pay to see and have direct contact with the big cats. However, others are situated in remote locations and operate ‘off grid’. They are closed to the public.

As part of our ongoing research into this industry, in late 2022, we received disturbing intelligence from anonymous sources employed by some of these ‘off grid’ lion farms. This information formed the basis of the new World Animal Protection report.

When dealing with issues involving wildlife and illegality, researchers often rely on sources whose identity must be kept hidden for their own protection. Recent studies carried out in this way include those focused on the illegal killing, processing, and trade of jaguar parts in South America.

The South African sources told us about the involvement of captive lion facilities in the international big cat bone trade. Essentially, there’s a well-established and effective legal operation which is plugged into an illicit trade network.

Whereas after a canned trophy hunt the skin, paws, and skull of lions are prized trophies by hunters, the lion’s bones are coveted by illegal wildlife traffickers.

In some cases, entire carcasses are left intact and are packed into cardboard boxes ready for shipment and for Asian bone buyers to collect. The reason this is done is to certify authenticity (that it is a lion carcass) and ensure tracking devices have not been inserted into the bones.

Sources also described how these facilities use various tools and tactics, such as security cameras, patrols and messaging apps to avoid detection during inspections.

A way forward

The fact that the commercial captive lion bone trade in South Africa is juxtaposed within a network of dealers that operate both legally and illegally is nothing new. In fact, illegal and unethical activities associated with the industry were a contributing factor which led a team of relevant experts (including traditional leaders, lion farmers and scientists) to conclude in a report released in 2020 that it was “tarnishing the country’s reputation with political and economic risks”.

Consequently, the South African Government announced its intention, with cabinet’s approval, to immediately halt the “domestication and exploitation of lions, and to ultimately close all captive lion facilities in South Africa”. But nothing has changed so far. The captive breeding and canned hunting of lions has continued.

Moreover, in late 2022, a ministerial task team was asked to “develop and implement a voluntary exit strategy and pathways for captive lion facilities”. This raised serious questions about whether the government was wavering in its stated intention to shut down the commercial captive lion breeding.

But given the intertwined legal and illegal aspects of this industry, it is highly doubtful whether a voluntary phasing out of the industry will be enough to stop the commercial exploitation of lions in South Africa.

Instead, there should be a strategy which includes a mandatory time bound termination of the lion farming industry in its entirety.

In the interim, to help enforcement agencies manage and ensure facilities comply with the law during an effective phase out, the industry needs to be fully audited, with all facilities officially registered.

To help prevent legal trade being used as a cover for illegal trade, farms should be required to stop breeding more lions. In addition, proper plans must be put in place to prevent the stockpiling of lion bones.

– Lion farming in South Africa: fresh evidence adds weight to fears of link with illegal bone trade
– https://theconversation.com/lion-farming-in-south-africa-fresh-evidence-adds-weight-to-fears-of-link-with-illegal-bone-trade-211231

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Jonathan Munemo, Professor of Economics, Salisbury University

Zimbabwe is facing a host of pressing challenges that voters dearly want the next president to address. Persistently high inflation, elevated interest rates, and a slumping and volatile Zimbabwe dollar have combined to fuel a cost of living crisis for households and battered business activity.

These will be among the key economic concerns weighing on Zimbabweans as they prepare to cast their votes at elections scheduled for late August. President Emmerson Mnangagwa is campaigning to secure a second mandate that will extend his five-year term in power. He will square off against 10 presidential candidates, including the opposition’s main candidate Nelson Chamisa.

Inflation remains sticky and jumped 175.8% in June from 86.5% a month ago. Part of the recent re-acceleration in inflation was triggered by the Zimbabwe dollar’s slide, which plunged 85% in the two months through May and pushed up import costs. Although inflation edged lower in July, it still remains significantly elevated.

The central bank responded by hiking interest rates to 150% from a previously elevated level of 140%. This move intensifies the pullback on business and consumer spending caused by currency weakening. Additionally, the high pace of price growth has outpaced nominal wage growth, leaving many people struggling to afford everyday essentials. Fewer jobs add to these concerns.

Stubbornly high inflation and its negative impact on the value of the Zimbabwe dollar are symptoms of much deeper problems rooted in decades of fiscal and central bank governance weaknesses. That’s why inflation has defied central bank efforts to rein it in with a series of aggressive rate hikes.

The next president will therefore need to push for reforms in governance to tackle deep underlying problems. Otherwise the country will remain locked in a seemingly endless battle to ward off the economic crisis that is being acutely felt by voters.

Governance vulnerabilities

Governance broadly refers to institutions used to exercise authority by the government. Long-running weaknesses in fiscal and central bank governance institutions have undermined the capacity of the government to effectively formulate and implement sound fiscal and monetary policies for many years.

Between 2005 and 2008 for example, the government pursued an expansionary fiscal policy. Public spending averaged 8% of GDP.

However, because of weak budgetary processes, spending was less efficient especially in areas critical for supporting stronger growth such as education, health, and public infrastructure. This meant that the economy could not generate more government revenue. Average government revenue collected was only about 5% of GDP over this period. The budget shortfalls were financed by printing money, which undermined the independence and credibility of the central bank. This impaired the central bank’s ability to fulfill its mandate, including supporting price stability.

The influx of printed cash in the economy fanned domestic demand but did nothing to spur the production of goods and services to meet it. Inflation spiked and drove the value of the currency lower, raising the cost of imported goods and thus amplifying inflation pressures.

This dynamic created a feedback loop in which rising inflation and a weakening currency reinforced each other. The result was hyperinflation. In 2008 inflation reached 231 million %, prompting the government to withdraw the weakening Zimbabwe dollar from circulation the following year and to replace it with the US dollar to combat hyperinflation.

In the years following the switch to the US dollar, inflation receded until 2019 when the Zimbabwe dollar was re-introduced. This was done without fixing vulnerabilities in fiscal and monetary governance that had eventually led to the demise of the Zimbabwe dollar in 2009.

Because of these vulnerabilities, inflation skyrocketed to 255% in 2019 – a 23-fold increase from a year earlier as money supply growth quickened from 28% to 250% amid a widening government budget deficit which topped 10% of GDP in 2017. Since then, the central bank has not been able to get a sustained deceleration in inflation despite aggressive rate hikes.

And the negative feedback loop between high inflation and a collapsing local currency was on full display again following the plunge in the currency in recent months. This has made the US dollar more attractive, and it is used more widely to pay for everything from food, fuel, school fees, rent and other services. In February the central bank adopted a new inflation gauge that tracks prices in both Zimbabwean and US dollars to capture this reality.

The US dollar is also seen as a haven which has taken on greater importance as inflation remains stubbornly high. In many ways, the return of the Zimbabwe dollar evokes bad memories of the inflation crisis of 2008 which still loom large for many people.

Weaknesses in governance breed corruption

Weaknesses in governance also create opportunities for higher levels of government corruption, which can lead to public spending waste, inefficiencies and lower revenue collection. All worsen budget deficits and add to monetary financing pressures on a central bank lacking independence.

In 2022, Transparency International ranked Zimbabwe 157 out of 180 countries based on perceived levels of public sector corruption, where the lower the rank the higher the perceived corruption. The evidence also showed no significant progress in tackling corruption for more than a decade. Another 2022 survey by Afrobarometer revealed that a staggering 87% of Zimbabweans believe corruption has increased or stayed the same.

A path forward

Zimbabwe’s economy is facing a confluence of challenges: inflation that won’t go away, higher interest rates and a sliding currency. The fallout has included a cost of living crisis, slowing business activity and fewer jobs. These problems are symptoms of deeply embedded structural weaknesses in the economy.

The following reforms are crucial for addressing these structural weaknesses:

• Fiscal governance reforms to strengthen the budgetary process. This will enhance revenue collection and increase the efficiency of government spending. These reforms should also aim to boost revenue collection by lowering pervasive informality in the economy.

• Central bank governance reforms to promote autonomy of the bank’s operations, including monetary policy independence which is important for preserving price stability.

In addition, good fiscal governance positively affects central bank governance by reducing the need for central bank financing, which allows a reduction in inflation.

– Zimbabwe heads to the polls amid high inflation, a slumping currency and a cost of living crisis
– https://theconversation.com/zimbabwe-heads-to-the-polls-amid-high-inflation-a-slumping-currency-and-a-cost-of-living-crisis-209841

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Alexander Richard Braczkowski, Research Fellow at the Centre for Planetary Health and Resilient Conservation Group, Griffith University

The death of a lion in Kenya’s picturesque savannas rarely tugs at people’s hearts, even in a country where wildlife tourism is a key pillar of the nation’s economy. But when one of the most tracked male lions in Kenya’s famous Masaai Mara was killed on 24 July 2023 the world took notice. Known as Jesse, he was killed during a fight with a coalition of three male lions from a rival pride, drawing attention to the brutally risky and dangerous lives of male lions.

Lions are organised in family groups known as a pride. Each pride is comprised of several related lionesses. One or more adult male lions will also be present. In the public imagination, male lions are better known by their popularised image as kings of the jungle. Their bravery, strength, and size (only tigers are larger) fits this profile.

But in reality, male lions live a life far more vulnerable. One in two male lions die in the first year of life. From the moment a male lion is born it faces a gauntlet of challenges – from snakebite and hungry hyenas to infanticide at the hands of other male lions.

If a male lion makes it out of their first year of life, and then to independence at around 3, they leave their pride for a period of nomadism. Nomads lead a dangerous existence, skirting the territories of established male coalitions. Out there on their own, few will make it to the age of 10.

At no time, it seems, is the male lion safe. We know from the evidence collected by the Kenya Wildlife Trust, resident guides, and tourists that Jesse administered and received many beatings from other male lions. We also know that Jesse, who lived to the ripe old age of 12, was eventually killed by three younger, stronger lions. Life comes full circle: killers frequently become victims themselves, of younger, brasher lions, or those in larger and thus more powerful coalitions.

We are three researchers with over 50 years of combined experience in big cat ecology, conservation, and the complexities of people and wildlife living together.

We base our commentary on the extensive information gathered by conservation organisations, independent scientists and tourism guides working in the Maasai Mara. Information on Jesse has been collected mainly through sightings data compiled by these entities over time.

Often the survival of male lions will be dictated by the size and strength of their coalitions, and the make up of the lion landscape at large. This sometimes has bearing for conservation especially when lions stray out of national parks or when male lions are hunted after leaving the safety of a protected area.

The trials of a young lion

A young male lion’s biggest threat is his exposure to other male lions that aren’t their father or uncle. A host of studies from the Serengeti in Tanzania to Zimbabwe show that the most significant single cause of lion mortality in the first year of a lion’s life is attributed to other male lions that kill them during infanticide.

This involves incoming males seeking out and killing the cubs of other males or driving young males away, and attempting to take over prides. Killing cubs accelerates the onset of oestrus in pride females and so is likely to increase the reproductive success of incoming males.

Most lions that get pushed out of their pride when very young don’t survive.

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Read more: Getting closer to a much better count of Africa’s lions

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Cubs that survive to independence – around 3 years of age – must leave their pride for a period of nomadism. During this time, they join up with cousins, brothers, and sometimes unrelated males of similar age to form what biologists term ‘coalitions’. The power of coalitions increases dramatically with the size of the group. This power can be defined by the number of different prides these coalitions are likely to rule, the number of offspring they will sire, and the number of times they will successfully be able to defend their prides from violent incursions from neighbouring male lions and their coalitions.

The tradeoff of larger coalitions is a watering down of a male lion’s reproductive opportunities.

Examples of such powerful coalitions include the six-strong Mapogo, and five-strong Majingilane from South Africa. There is also the Lake Quintet coalition from Ngorongoro Crater in Tanzania.

Contrastingly, Jesse had only one coalition mate, a lion known as Frank. The two were strong enough to kick out the duo of Dere and Barrikoi from the Offbeat pride in May 2014. After his coalition mate Frank disappeared, Jesse left the Offbeat Pride and led a largely nomadic lifestyle except when he unsuccessfully tried to take over the Rakero pride and even fought with his own son Jesse 2.

Three laws of the wild

Mate, protect, fight. These are the three tenets most male animals live and die by in the animal kingdom and this could not be truer for male lions. When male lions are in the prime of their lives somewhere between 5 and 9 years of age they will attempt to have as many cubs as they can. And they will do their best to protect and guard over as many prides as possible.

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Read more: Lions are still being farmed in South Africa for hunters and tourism – they shouldn’t be

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But there is a fine line between holding tenure over many different prides, and successfully being able to defend them and their young. When fights do breakout between male lions they are usually over territorial and breeding rights.

At times they are mere squabbles between coalition mates. At other times, the battles are big enough to cause rifts and splits within coalitions. But in most cases fights are between rival coalitions. During these fights lions engage in a suite of bodily and olfactory engagements including posturing, roaring and growling, swatting, and biting, and even urination and territorial demarcation.

For conservation: look to the lionesses

When it comes to the conservation of the lion species it is important to look to the lionesses. They are the sentinels of a populations health, specifically the number of animals in a group, and more importantly the ratio of lionesses to lions. Healthy populations can expect ratios of roughly 2 females for every male, but when under pressure due to poaching, killings by cattle farmers and a loss of prey these ratios invert towards males.

The story of Jesse highlights how, in spite of their status as king of the beasts, lions are vulnerable. While in this instance, the cause of death was another lion, much more commonly, lions die at the hands of humans. This can be through being shot or poisoned to protect livestock, being poached for their body parts or being caught as by-catch in traps and snares set for other animals by bushmeat poachers.

On the plus side, the fascinating pride dynamics and trials and tribulations of individual lions can help capture the public’s imagination and foster a love for the species and other wildlife. Although human pressures are high, Kenya retains a large lion population and a suite of iconic wildlife areas. These assets are a great source of pride for many Kenyans, and rightly so.

– The fast, furious, and brutally short life of an African male lion
– https://theconversation.com/the-fast-furious-and-brutally-short-life-of-an-african-male-lion-211130

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Celeste Scarpini, Researcher, Institute of Development Studies

Many African tax authorities have weak capacity to raise revenue. From 1990 to 2020, sub-Saharan African countries on average collected only about 12%-15% of GDP as taxes, a much lower share than the 33.5% in OECD economies.

For countries that have limited information about taxpayers, constrained resources and informal economies, it can be difficult to collect revenue. What’s more, African tax administrations tend to rely on manual filing and payment of taxes. In-person interactions between taxpayers and tax officials are common, creating opportunities for collusion when paying taxes. African taxpayers also experience higher compliance costs than similar regions when navigating opaque tax systems.

Kenya has faced many of these challenges. To streamline processes and make them more transparent, the country has in the last decade begun to digitise public services like tax collection. Digitisation also aims to enhance taxpayer identification and monitoring capacity, and lower the costs of compliance for taxpayers.

In the latest policy reforms, the country plans to introduce digital identity documents for all Kenyans by February 2024. A digital ID system, e-ID, uses digital technology across the entire ID lifecycle: capturing, validating, storing and transferring data.

In Kenya, each citizen will receive a unique personal identifier. It will be crucial throughout a child’s journey in school. From the age of 18, the identifier will become an official national identity number for access to the full range of public services.

At the same time, Kenya is on course to eliminate cash transactions for all government services. These services include business registration, passport services, and land and property services in 2023.

Combining mandatory electronic tax payment and e-IDs could greatly improve revenue collection and efficiency, and cut taxpayers’ compliance costs.

Electronic filing of taxes has been mandatory since 2016 to collect taxes on employment, business and rental incomes. The system supports a wide range of tasks, from registrations to refunds. Taxpayers can still pay taxes using cash, however, by visiting authorised banks or Kenya Revenue Authority service centres. Universal e-payment of taxes is expected to change all that.

We have between us years of research in governance, public finance and taxation conducted in African countries. Our view is that a number of challenges and constraints need to be considered to unlock the benefits of a fully digitised tax administration, not just in Kenya but elsewhere.

Technology and taxation

Technology can strengthen tax administration in at least three ways:

1. Identifying the tax base: using third-party information, technology can create comprehensive databases of taxable subjects, making it easier to determine what tax is payable. Kenya’s digital ID would improve the way government databases work together and the revenue collector’s “view” of taxpayers.

2. Enforcing compliance: technology can automatically check what a taxpayer reports against other data sources. Efficient e-filing platforms can automatically identify missed or late declarations. The unique identifiers provided by an ID scheme make this work.

3. Facilitating compliance: tax e-filing and e-payment can help reduce compliance costs. They improve record-keeping and eliminate travel, queuing and capricious manual practices from tax officials. And the biographic information in the digital ID database helps with tax registration.

But evidence suggests that important preconditions must be met for IT-based tax reforms to succeed.

In the case of Kenya, accessibility and taxpayer costs should be policy priorities when mandating e-payment. A recent study on tax e-filing, for instance, revealed that not everyone had access to devices necessary for e-filing, and there were language barriers. These practical challenges typically pushed taxpayers to use intermediaries: they went back to a manual, in-person experience.

These shortcomings increase the risk of errors, misuse of personal data and bribery. Less tech-savvy taxpayers might be vulnerable. As filing levels are already poor, e-payment solutions should make it easier, not harder, to comply.

Lessons from other countries

E-services help improve filing accuracy and timeliness, but one lesson from our research is that this does not always translate into higher tax revenue.

Positive impacts can be short-lived, as adoption of digital merchant payments in Rwanda indicates. Here, taxpayers quickly reverted to pre-adoption compliance levels. Similarly, in Ethiopia, the adoption of point-of-sale electronic tax devices increased revenues, but gains were offset by taxpayers inflating other, less verifiable margins.

Making digital systems compulsory, as in Rwanda and Eswatini, does not necessarily lead to people using them. Digital divides emerge between adopters and non-adopters. The less equipped, more marginalised and less tech-savvy taxpayers fail to take up the tools.

Our research also shows that digital ID schemes must meet several conditions for tax administrations to benefit meaningfully. Digital IDs must be universally adopted. Identification data should be accurate and up to date. Strong cooperation across government entities is necessary to allow data sharing, as we’ve seen in our ongoing work in Uganda and Ghana.

Which way for Kenya?

The government and tax administration must be cautious about digital IDs. Poor-quality and outdated data from e-ID could be damaging to the Kenya Revenue Authority’s functions. The institutions involved should promote a culture of information updating in the population. They should encourage citizens to share valid information with the government.

It’s vital to establish a robust data protection framework and digital trust, especially after the failure of the country’s National Integrated Identity Management System. Citizens need clarity on data usage and how the new project differs from the previous one if they are to trust the digital ID system.

Similarly, the government and revenue authority must support citizens to move towards fully digitised tax payments. They can do this by creating systems that are simple and secure, and by providing assistance and training.

The development of e-government must happen along with a framework for data protection and cyber-security response infrastructure. Besides threatening citizens’ data privacy and security, system failures – like the one that recently disrupted access to multiple services on the e-Citizen portal – have extremely serious repercussions on citizens’ trust in government and technology.

Nimmo Elmi (PhD) contributed to some of the research on which this article is based.

– Kenya is going digital to boost tax revenue – there are lessons to learn from other African countries
– https://theconversation.com/kenya-is-going-digital-to-boost-tax-revenue-there-are-lessons-to-learn-from-other-african-countries-209893